Dampak Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia terhadap Harga Ekspor Komoditas Minyak Sawit dan Karet Indonesia
WIWOHO, BELLY SATRIO (pembimbing: Tri Widodo, M.Ec., Dev., Ph.D.), Tri Widodo, M.Ec., Dev., Ph.D.
Kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia turut mempengaruhi harga komoditas. Komoditas utama Indonesia yang akan diteliti adalah minyak sawit dan karet. Peneliti akan melihat hubungan kedua komoditas terhadap harga minyak mentah dunia menggunakan metode autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL). Metode ini digunakan untuk melihat hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Hasil menunjukan bahwa baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang memiliki hubungan.
With regard to the increasing in world crude oil prices, it is time to examine more carefully the claim that the increase in world crude oil prices tends to affect commodity prices. Hence, I examine the major commodity prices in Indonesia namely palm oil prices and natural rubber prices. I will analyze the relationship of both commoditiesÂ’ prices with world crude oil prices using the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) approach. Besides the analysis of bound testing approaches to see the level of relationship, short run and long run effects also are carried out in order to investigate which period has been significantly effect by the fluctuation of world crude oil prices. The results reveal that long run relationship between world crude oil prices and both commodities prices exist. And our government should make policy to control these commodities.
Kata Kunci : palm oil prices; natural rubber prices; world crude oil prices; autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL); long run relationship, harga minyak sawit; harga karet; harga minyak mentah; autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL); hubungan jangka panjang
