Apakah pengeluaran pemerintah Menyebabkan crowding out? Studi kasus perekonomian indonesia 1974-1998

Wiji Murniyati (Adv:Dra. Artidiatun adji, M.ec.dev), Dra. Artidiatun adji, M.ec.dev

2001 | Skripsi | S1 Economics

The importance of the mobilization of domestic savings in developing countries can hardly be understated given the present state of international capital markets. Unfortunately, however, the understanding of the actual determinants of public and private savings in developing countries is still scanty. This study will provide additional and more conclusive empirical evidence on the government spending and the behaviour of liquidity-constrained consumers. The issue of government spending, the real rate of interest and the behaviour of liquidity- constrained consumers is related to the Richardian equivalence proposition. The proposition states that a bond-financed tax cut or any substitution between bond finance and tax finance will have no effect on private decisions, i'.e. there is no aggregate wealth effect and there is no effect on aggregate consumption or national saving. In contrast, traditional point of view economic model argues that a shift from a tax to a debt-financed deficit will increase consumption. As the government's debt grows, individuals will feel wealthier. Consequent, they will reduce saving and increase consumption over time. As a result, both aggregate demand and the interest rate will increase. The increase in the interest rate will crowd­ out private investment, and hence, will reduce capital accumulation and growth. Therefore, the Ricardian and traditional approaches have very different implications for important policy issues. The importance of the response of private spending to changes in government spending stems from the observation that, if government spending is a substitute for private spending, then government expenditures restraing policies are like to induce higher private consumption. Most adjustment programs in developing countries, however, attempt to ensure that government deficits do not absorb a high share of private savings. Indeed, the existence of public sup/uses (presumable to be achieved through tight expenditure policies) is often seen as away to provide a pool of loanable fund savings to private sector investors, thereby avoiding the problems that characterize more traditional policies aimed at mobilizjng private savings. The argument, however, disregards the possibility that direct crowding out can partly or fully counteract government efforts. Therefore, the issue of crowding out is important to be examined

Kata Kunci : crowding out, perekonomian indonesia,pengeluaran pemerintah