Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia terhadap Permintaan Agregat Indonesia, 1999:1-2007:4

Wijaya, Heri, Hengki Purwoto, M.A.

2008 | Skripsi | S1 Economics

N.A.

The current study examines the relationship between the world oil price and aggregate demand in a developing country, Indonesia by means of Vector Auto Regression analysis. The study used quarterly time series data covering period 1999Q1-2001Q4. The impact of world oil price to particular macroeconomics indicator, inflation and interest rate, also analyzed. Results of the study indicate that world oil price-by impacting the price level negatively-negatively impacts real output and interest rate. The results indicate that the output does not revert quickly to its initial level in higher world oil price level, but declines over an extended period. In addition, the inflation level reverts to its initial level after 16 period of time. Interest rate also closely relapses to its origin level after 12 period of time. Key words: Oil price, aggregate demand, inflation, interest rate, VAR

Kata Kunci : Pengaruh Harga Minyak; Permintaan Agregat Indonesia