PENGARUH UKURAN PERUSAHAAN DAN RASIO UNGKITAN PADA KETETAPAN PRAKIRAAN LABA MODEL MEKANIK

WIDIASTUTI R. RINI (Pembimbing: DR. SUWARDJO, MSC.), DR. SUWARDJO, MSC.

2012 | Tesis | S2 Accounting

Penelitian dilakukan untuk menguji perbedaan keakuratan perkiraan penghasilan yang dihasilkan dari Box Jenkins model, model Random Walk, Foster model, Watts-Griffin model, dan Brown-Rozeff model. Hal ini juga menguji hubungan antara ukuran perusahaan dan rasio leverage perusahaan pada akurasi perkiraan penghasilan pada kuartal satu angka.

Sampel penelitian terdiri dari 40 perusahaan yang terus melaporkan angka kuartalan mereka laba bersih 1994-200 I. MAPE digunakan sebagai proxy keakuratan laba diperkirakan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kesalahan berarti akibat Box Jenkins model dan Brown-Rozeff model yang lebih kecil dari yang dihasilkan dari model lainnya. Namun, Perkiraan Modelnya kotak Jenkins tidak memberikan bukti bahwa ada akurasi secara statistik berbeda dari model Foster, Brown-Rozeff model dan Model Random Walk. Ketepatan perkiraan pendapatan dari Box Jenkins model yang berbeda dari model Watt-Griffin.

Hasil regresi berganda menunjukkan ukuran yang memberi efek pada akurasi perkiraan penghasilan dari Watts-Griffin, Brown-Rozeff dan Modelnya kotak Jenkins. Akurasi secara statistik signifikan pada tingkat 0,10. Namun, Rasio leverage yang tidak terkait untuk meramalkan akurasi.

The study was conducted to examine the difference in the accuracy of the earnings forecasts resulting from Box Jenkins model, Random Walk model, Foster model, Watts-Griffin model, and Brown-Rozeff model. It also examined the relationship between firm size and leverage ratio of the company on the accuracy of earnings forecasts on the one quarter ahead.

The sample of the study consisted of 40 companies that continually report their quarterly net income numbers from 1994 to 200 I. MAPE was used as the proxy of the accuracy of earnings forecast. The results of the study showed that the error means resulting from the Box Jenkins model and Brown-Rozeffmodel was smaller than that resulting from other models. However, The Box Jenkins model forecast do not provide evidence that there are accuracy statistically differ from the Foster model, Brown-Rozeffmodel and Random Walk model. The accuracy of earnings forecasts from Box Jenkins model differed from the Watts- Griffin model.

The results of multiple regression showed that size gave effect to the accuracy of earnings forecasts from the Watts-Griffin, Brown-Rozeff and Box Jenkins model. The accuracy was statistically significant at the level 0.10. However, The leverage ratio was not related to forecast accuracy.

Kata Kunci : Accuracy of earning forecasts, Box Jenkins model, Foster Model, Brown-Rozeffmodel, Watts-Gnffin model, Random Walk model, firm size, leverage ratio