Penentuan Intrinsic Value Saat Going Public Studi Kasus PT Novindo Agritech Hutama
WIBOWO, IMAM TRI (Adv.: Abdul Halim, Prof., Dr., MBA), Abdul Halim, Prof., Dr., MBA
PT. NOVINDO AGIRECTECH HUTAMA berdiri sejak bulan Oktober tahun 2008. Latar beralakang utama berdirinya perusahaan dipicu oleh krisis global pada tahun 2008 yang lalu dimana banyak perusahaan multinasional (MNC) di hampir seluruh negara terkena imbasnya, termasuk diantaranya adalah Novartis AG. Novartis AG adalah perusahaan berbasis farmasi yang berkantor pusat di Basle-Swiss. Diawal krisis terjadi, Management Novartis AG di Basle memutuskan bahwa mereka akan fokus terhadap strategi utama (pipeline) mereka sehingga memutuskan untuk portfolio bisinisnya yang kurang sejalan dengan strategi yang telah mereka tetapkan akan mereka evaluasi ulang atau bahkan ditutup.
Di Indonesia, Novartis memiliki empat bisnis unit, adalah : Pharma, Over the Counter (OTC), Sandoz, and Animal Health. Akhirnya keputusan sulit telah ditetapkan bahwa bisnis unit animal health di Indonesia akan ditutup. Berdasarkan formulasi penutupan bisnis unit yang dipilih adalah Management Buy Out (MBO), artinya senior manajemen bisnis unit animal health Indonesia akan mengambil alih bisnis dengan membentuk organisasi baru yang terlepas dari Novartis, secara singkat organisasi baru ini yang akan melanjutkan operasional bisnis di pasar Indonesian market, kemudian organisasi bari ini dinamakan NOVINDO.
Secara meyakinkan dan menjunjung profesionalitas, manajemen hingga saat ini berhasil menunjukkan eksistensi organisasi yang baru dimana profitabilitas atau tingkat keuntungan dari usaha berhasil melampaui pencapaian di organisasi sebelumnya. Indikator pendapatan terakhir dari penjualan di tahun 2010 mencapai Rp 41,1 milyar atau tertinggi sejak bisnis unit animal health masih berada di bawah Novartis Indonesia. Begitu juga dengan pertumbuhan total aset dari Rp 12.4 milyar di tahun 2008 meningkat menjadi Rp 20.4 milyar ditahun 2010, begitu juga dari indikator rasio seperti current ratio, debt ratio, solvency ratio, dan sebagainya menunjukkan kinerja keuangan perusahaan yang stabil.
PT. Novindo Agritech Hutama memang belum memutuskan untuk menawarkan sahammnya ke publik (going public), namun jika kita melihat kebutuhan modal kedepan seperti untuk ekspansi, investasi, dan pengembangkan usaha lainnya, dimana struktur modal perusahaan saat ini lebih mengandalkan modal pemegang saham, hal ini akan sangat beresiko terutama dalam hal likuiditas perusahaaan. Opsi yang ada seperti menawarkan saham baru ke public (IPO), mengeluarkan surat hutang, atau pinjaman bank, harus diperhitungkan dahulu biaya modal yang harus dikeluarkan (cost of fund). Secara umum dapat diketahui bahwa biaya modal yang paling murah adalah dengan penawarkan saham baru ke publik (IPO). Untuk mengetahui nilai wajar per lembar saham perusahaan yang akan ditawarkan ke publik/investor harus dihitung dahulu dimana dalam penelitian ini menggunakan model discounted cash flows.
Dari hasil perhitungan nilai wajar saham perusahaan didapat valuasi sebesar Rp 194.300/saham, sementara untuk nominal perlembar saham saat ini adalah sebesar Rp 100.000/saham. Artinya, perusahaan dapat menawarkan saham baru dengan harga Rp 194.300/saham kepara investor/publik selanjutnya para investor juga bisa menilai apakah saham tersebut wajar nilainya sehingga bias membandingkannya dengan saham perusahaan lain sehingga bisa menentukan saham mana yang akan memberikan return yang lebih baik.
PT. NOVINDO AGIRECTECH HUTAMA is established since October 2008. Upon its operation, the background of Novindo was created by global crisis in 2008 were affected many Multi National Corporation (MNC) over the world, included Novartis AG. Novartis AG is a pharmaceutical company with its headquarter in Basle-Swiss. Post of the crisis, NovartisÂ’s headquarter decided to focus on its strategic pipeline by rationalizing some organization, portfolio and its strategic business unit (SBU) even that less relevant with its strategic focus. In Indonesia, Novartis has four main SBUs at that time; there are Pharma, Over the Counter (OTC), Sandoz, and Animal Health. With difficult decision and formulation, it was decided to close down its SBU of Animal Health. The best form for the closure called with Management Buy Out (MBO) meant is to transfer the business to new entity that totally separated from Novartis organization, in nutshell former senior management of Animal Health who have been for years dedicated to animal business bold to set new own firm who will continue the business in Indonesian market, later the new firm known with NOVINDO.
As a result of dynamic changes from MNC organization (Novartis) to local firm, with confident and professionalism of management, the firm is able to represent good business performance in term of revenue and profitability since the establishment the company in October 2008. From only IDR 4.8 billion of sales in 2008, now became IDR 41.1 billion in 2010. As well as for the total asset from only IDR 12.2 billion to IDR 20.4 billion and the other indicator indicate by current ratio that able to maintain average above 100% (123% in 2008, and 230% in 2010).
Not only from the financial side of performance that shown positive signals, in term of organization and company image shown impression, for the organization head count from only 9 people at the beginning in 2008, now in 2011 we plan to have 27 under Novindo due to business expansion and portfolio acquisition.
PT. Novindo Agritech Hutama may not decided yet to going public, but when we look on the future cash flow requirement, the company may need other resources for its ‘liquid fund’ to financing its expansion and operation. Either by changes its capital structures such as initial public offering (IPO), issue bond, or bank loan. We have to seek which the lowest cost of fund for the capital structure, but accordance to common practice that the lowest cost of fund for firm is IPO. Prior decision to have an IPO, we have to calculate the real value of the firm to define best price per share to be quoted to investor.
This thesis will define the intrinsic value of PT. Novindo Agritech Hutama using free cash flow to the firm approach, beside macro economy parameters or variable that exists like inflation, foreign exchange rate, and interest rate for references valuation. Company financial statement such balance sheet, statement of income, and the ratio will be analyze and added as additional measurement comparison.
Accordance to the analysis of free cash flow to the firm, it gets the fair value of PT. Novindo Agritech Hutama each for Rp 194.300,/share, while for the book value or face value that currently apply is Rp 100.000,/share. Thus, the nominee of investor may compare Novindo with other firm who has similar size and industry to get the best reference of investorÂ’s view whether the price that quotes by Novindo is fair already. But for the time being, if the future parameters change, it may lead the valuation of the firm that was analyzed now will less relevant and subject to recomputed and reassess the analysis for gain new fair value.
Kata Kunci : discounted cash flow valuation model, going public, free cash flows to the firm, capital structure, rasio analysis, and cost of capital.
