Pengujian Teori Pecking Order: Analysis Logistic dan Multinomial Logistic Regression
Susilawati, Dr. Erni Ekawati, MSA, MBA
Penelitian ini menguji model pecking order dengan meneliti perusahaan ypng IPO pada tahun 1990. Dengan menggunakan model logistic dan multinomial logistic regression, penelitian ini mencoba melihat pengaruh masalah cash flow, default risk dan asymmetric information terhadap probabilitas penggunaan tipe pendanaan berdasarkan model pecking order. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa cash flow tidak mempengaruhi probabilitas penggunaan dana eksternal, artinya, perusahaan menggunakan dana eksternal bukan karena masalah cash flow. Dari variable default risk ditemukan bahwa default risk tidak mengurangi probabilitas penggunaan hutang. Perusahaan masih terus berhutang bahkan ketika telah menghadapi default risk yang cukup tinggi. Kedua temuan ini tidak sesuai dengan model pecking order. Namun demikian, penelitian ini memberikan dua hasil yang sesuai dengan model pecking order. Pertama, variabel asymmetric information mempengaruhi keputusan pendanaan eksternal. Berdasarkan salah satu variabel asymmetric information, yaitu tangible asset (NFATA) multinomial logit menemukan urutan pendanaan yang sesuai dengan prediksi pecking order, yaitu dana internal, hutang dan ekuitas. Dua temuan terakhir ini sesuai dengan prediksi pecking order
This research provides a test of pecking order model by examining firms that performed IPO in 1990. Using logistic and multinomial logistic regression, this research attempts to scrutinize the effect of cash flow, default risk and asymmetric information on the probability of the use of financing type based on pecking order model. By running the logistic regression, the result shows that cash flow does not affect the probability of obtaining external funds, which means that sample firms obtain external funds not due to cash flow problem. From default risk variable, the result finds that default risk does not reduce the probability of using debt. Sample firms keep increasing their debt even though they face quite high default risk. These two findings are not consistent to what pecking order theory predicts. However, asymmetric information variables significantly affect the probability of using external funds. Based on one of significant asymmetric information variables, i.e. tangible asset, multinomial logit model shows that the most favorable financing type is internal ,fund, followed with debt and equity. These last two findings are consistent with pecking order theory
Kata Kunci : Pecking order theory, default risk, asymmetric information, cash flow
