Pengaruh Kebijakan Kenaikan Harga Bahan Bakar Minyak pada Permintaan Kendaraan Roda Empat di Indonesia: studi kasus kenaikan harga BBM bulan Maret dan Oktober 2005

Setyadharma, Andryan, Dr. Sri Adiningsih, M.Sc.

2008 | Tesis | S2 Economics

N.A.

The market of the four wheels vehicle in Indonesia continued to growth significantly after the economic crisis on 1998. Nevertheless, the sales growth of the four wheels vehicle during 2005 and 2006 continued to decline after the announcement of the fuel prices increase on March and October 2005 by the government. This research aimed to study the impact of the rise in fuel prices on March and October 2005 towards the demand of the new four wheels vehicle in Indonesia. This research used two analysis tools, paired samples t-test and the Engle-Granger Error Correction Model (EG-ECM) with the monthly series data from January 2001 to March 2007. Using Paired Samples t-test analysis, almost all the producer of the four wheels vehicle faced the difference in sales mean before and after the fuel prices increase on October 2005 which are shown by significant t-stat values in various levels of significance. Based on difference value of mean, it could be seen that almost of the producers faced the decline in sales.


Using the Engle-Granger Error Correction Model analysis, the estimation results showed that from three types of the explaining variable represent the fuel prices, only the real pertamax price that was significant and had positive relationship with the demand of the new four wheels vehicle in the short run and long run. The real premium price only significant and had negative relationship with the demand of new four wheels vehicle in the long run. The real solar price was not influencing the demand of new four wheels vehicle in both short run and long run. Keywords: Four Wheels Vehicle, Fuel, Paired Samples t-test, Engle-Granger Error Correction Model

Kata Kunci : Kenaikan BBM; Pasar Roda Empat; Four Wheels Vehicle, Fuel, Paired Samples t-test, Engle-Granger Error Correction Model