Analisis Kurva Phillips dan Hukum Okun di Indonesia: 1983-2006

Putri, Ika Anindya, Prof. Dr. Insukindro, M.A.

2008 | Skripsi | S1 Economics

Inflasi, pengangguran, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan variabel indikator kebijakan makroekonomi. Penelitian ini mempelajari hubungan antara inflasi dan tingkat pengangguran, serta pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan tingkat pengangguran, berdasarkan kurva Phillips dan hukum Okun. Engle-Granger ECM digunakan untuk mengestimasi kedua hubungan, dengan data tahunan Indonesia dari tahun 1983 hingga 2006. Hasil estimasi mengindikasikan adanya pengaruh inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran, serta terdapat trade-off di antaranya. Jadi, sacrifice ratio dapat dihitung selama terdapat hubungan negatif baik dalam kurva Phillips maupun hukum Okun. Kata kunci: Kurva Phillips, hukum Okun, inflasi, tingkat pengangguran, pertumbuhan ekonomi, sacrifice ratio.

Inflation, unemployment, and economic growth are indicator variables in macroeconomic policy. This paper examined the relationship between inflation and unemployment rate, and that between economic growth and unemployment rate, based on Phillips curve and Okun's law, respectively. Engle-Granger ECM was used to estimate both relationships, with annually Indonesian data from 1983 to 2006. This study indicate that both inflation and economic growth are affecting unemployment rate, and there are trade-offs between them. Thus, sacrifice ratio can be counted as long as there is a negative relationship in both Phillips curve and Okun's law. Keywords: Phillips curve, Okun's law, inflation, unemployment rate, economic growth, sacrifice ratio.

Kata Kunci : Kurva Phillips, hukum Okun, inflasi, tingkat pengangguran, pertumbuhan ekonomi, sacrifice ratio