PRICE EARNINGS RATIOS SEBAGAI DASAR PENILAIAN KEWAJARAN HARGA SAHAM YANG LISTED DI BURSA EFEK JAKARTA

MARMONO SINGGIH (Adv : Dr. Suad Husnan, MBA), Dr. Suad Husnan, MBA

1998 | Tesis | S2 Management

Salah satu pendekatan yang digunakan dalam menilai kewajaran harga saham adalah price earnings ratios (PER). Alasan utama mengapa PER digunakan dalam analisis harga saham, karena PER memudahkan atau membantu mengarahkan judgment penganalisis pada variable - variabel yang penting.

Tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah menentukan apakah PER dapat digunakan sebagai penilai harga saham yang wajar. Secara rinci ditentukan oleh seberapa besar growth rate of earning dan systematic risk (β) mampu menjelaskan perubahan PER dan apakah valuation model tersebut dapat digunakan sebagai security selection.

Dengan menggunakan sampel sebanyak 30 saham yang listed di BEJ, diperoleh valuation model berikut: PER = 8,499 + 0,700 GE - 0,291 β.

Secara simultan growth rate of earning dan systematic risk 03) mampu menjelaskan perubahan PER sebesar 26,6%. Uji asumsi dasar klasik menyatakan bahwa regresi cross-section tersebut BLUE (Best Linear Unbiased Estimator).

Valuation model yang diajukan sangat berhasil (highly successfully, dalam menjelaskan perubahan harga saham, akan tetapi kurang berhasil (much less successfully, dalam menyeleksi saham (security selection) yang dibeli atau dijual.

Price earnings ratios (PER) is used to evaluate the fair value of stock. The reason is that price earnings ratios (PER) could help the analysts to make judgement on important variables. This research is meant to determine whether price earnings ratios (PER) could be used to evaluate the fair value of stock. This value is determined by growth rate of earning (GE) and systematic risk (β) capabilities to clarify price earnings ratios (PER) change and whether the valuation model could be used as security selection.

The taken samples were 30 (thirty) stocks of The Jakarta Stock Exchange. The result of the valuation model is as follows: PER = 8.499 + 0.700 GE - 0.291 β

Simultaneously the growth rate of earning and systematic risk could explain the price earnings ratios (PER) change about 26.6%.

The classical assumption test describes that the cross-sectional regression is BLUE (Best Linear Unbiased Estimator). The valuation model is highly successful) to determine stock price change, but this model is much less successful) to select which one of the stock is bought or sold (security selection).

Kata Kunci : Price Earnings Ratios, Saham, BEJ