Analisis keuangan Kelayakan Pengembangan Proyek Coal Bed Methane (CBM) Sebagai Alternatif Sumber Bahan Baku Gas Alam Untuk Industri LNG Indonesia
HARIYADI, BINTAN FAJAR (Adv.: Abdul Halim, Prof., Dr., M.B.A.), Abdul Halim, Prof., Dr., M.B.A.
Penurunan produksi sumur gas existing mengakibatkan penurunan produksi Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Salah satu alternatif peningkatan suplai bahan baku gas alam adalah teknologi Coal Bed Methane (CBM). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk pengujian kelayakan investasi pengembangan CBM dari aspek keuangan dengan cara membuat permodelan analisis keuangan yang disajikan secara kuantitatif berdasarkan parameter asumsi dan referensi data tertentu.
Asumsi dan referensi data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini antara lain nilai capital investment untuk pengembangan High Productivity CBM dan instalasi jaringan pipa gas alam menuju kilang pemrosesan LNG, dibandingkan dengan cash flow yang akan di dapatkan berdasarkan cost dan revenue dari bisnis LNG. Berdasarkan asumsi dan data tersebut, akan diperoleh tingkat keekonomian investasi proyek yang disajikan dalam parameter Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Payback Period dan Profitability Index (PI) serta pengujian analisis sensitivitas.
Berdasarkan asumsi kondisi ideal, tingkat keekonomian proyek sangat baik yaitu nilai NPV US$ 2.225 juta, IRR 82,4%, PI 11,83 dan tingkat pengembalian investasi selama 1,98 tahun. Analisis sensitivitas proyek didasarkan pada penundaan pelaksanaan proyek selama 1 tahun, perubahan biaya eksplorasi, produksi dan transmisi gas CBM serta perubahan harga jual LNG di pasar dunia. Kombinasi ketiga kondisi tersebut menghasilkan penurunan IRR menjadi 46,37% dan penurunan nilai NPV sebesar 17-32% dibanding nilai NPV kondisi ideal.
In consequence of gradual decline in existing gas wells used to supply for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant, the current production of LNG is also decrease. One of alternatives to increase gas supply is developing Coal Bed Methane (CBM) technology. The aim of research is to examine financial investment feasibility in developing CBM resources by creating financial model to quantitatively analyze some parameters and related data given.
The assumptions and data references occupied in research are capital investment of High Productivity CBM development and the cost for installation of gas piping network from gas wells to LNG Plant. Those investment would be compared to costs of LNG Downstream Business Operation and the revenue from LNG sales. According to all related data and calculation, further the research will come to the feasibility of investment represented by some parameters : Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Payback Period, Profitability Index (PI), and the investment would be examined accordingly by sensitivity analysis.
According to the ideal assumption, the investment come up with the result NPV US$ 2.225 million, IRR 82.4% and PI 11,83 which would be recover after 1,98 investment years. The Sensitivity Analysis are based on scenario of increasing upstream cost due to one-year delay for exploration and production of gas, gas transmission cost higher due to price of steel increase and increasing LNG Price in Market. The advanced research using combined scenario resulted the decreasing of IRR to be 46,37% and NPV decline to 17%-32%.
Kata Kunci : Feasibility, Liquefied Natural Gas, Coal Bed Methane, kelayakan investasi, analisis sensitivitas,
