Factors Influencing the Flow Foreign Direct Investment to Uganda: Analysis From The Supply (Creditors) Side (1978-1993)
Farida, Namutebi. (Adv.: Dra. Endang Sih Prapti,. M. A), Dra. Endang Sih Prapti,. M. A
Penelitian ini menyangkut alasan alasan kenapa pengusaha asing kurang tertarik untuk menanamkan modalnya di Uganda. Kegunaan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui aspek-aspek atau faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keputusan investor asing untuk menanamkan modalnya di Uganda. Faktor-faktor yang dianggap penting untuk mempengaruhi aliran modal asing ke Uganda terdiri dari; PDB riil per kapita, rasio Libor dan suku bunga domestik, laju inflasi, pertumbuhan nilai tambah di bidang manufaktur, defisit anggaran pendapatan belanja negara (Government budget deficit) dan stabilitas politik yang telah dimasukkan sebagai variabel dummy.
Data yang digunakan adalah sekunder runtut waktu dari iahun 1978¬1993. Alat analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi linear berganda dan program DATAFIT telah digunakan untuk menganalisis data.
Penanaman modal asing adalah salah satu faktor utama di bidang bisnis intemasional. Akan tetapi satu struktur teoritis tidak dapat menjelaskan semua aspek penting tentang penanaman modal asing.Walaupun demikian, ada teori-teori kuat yang mencoba menjelaskan kenapa aliran PMA dapat
terjadi misalnya "Product life cycle, Firm specific Advantage Theory dan Eclectic Approach to FDI". Teori-teori yang disebut peneliti di atas telah
digunakan dalam penulisan tesis ini.
Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa sekitar 78% variasi dari variabel dependen (PMA) dijelaskan oleh variabel independen yaitu laju inflasi, rasio Libor dan suku bunga domestik, pertumbuhan nilai tambah di bidang manufaktur dan lain-lain. Hubungan antara variabel dependen dan variabel independen adalah sebagai berikut; PDB riil per kapita ( positif), rasio libor dan suku bunga domestik (negatif), laju inflasi (positif), pertumbuhan nilai tambah di bidang manufaktur (negatif) dan defisit anggaran pendapatan belanja negara (positif) dan stabilitas politik (negatif). Secara keseluruhan, semua variabel yang dimasukkan adalah signifikan pada derajat 1%, 5% dan
10%.
Menyangkut implikasi ekonomi, variabel laju inflasi mempunyai tanda positif yang tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis yang telah dirumuskan. Penjelasan untuk fenomenon tersebut adalah bahwa sebagian besar aliran PMA ke Uganda tergantung pada insentif dari pemerintah seperti pembebasan pajak (3-6) tahun setelah pembayaran pajak perusahaan, "dividend tax" dan "withholding tax" pada persentase tertentu. Adapun pembebasan pajak impor dan pajak penjualan yang dikenakan pada barang modal untuld investasi.
Dari penjelasan di atas dapat disimpulkan bahwa laju inflasi tidak mempengaruhi aliran PMA ke Uganda. Hasil dari variabel lain menunjukkan bahwa ada impak yang signifikan antara variabel independen dengan variabel dependen. Untuk itu, dapat disimpulkan pula, bahwa Investor asing kurang tertarik untuk menanamkan mocinlnya di Uganda karena faktor ekonomi dan politik seperti telah dirumuskan di tesis ini.
The research in question investigates empirically reasons why foreign investors have been less attracted to Uganda. The purpose of this research is to consider aspects or determinants of foreign investment decisions. The major factors that are considered to influence the flow of foreign direct investment to Uganda include; real GDP per capita, libor/ domestic rate, rate of inflation, rate of growth of value added in manufacturing, government budget deficit and political instability which is treated as a dummy variable. The data used is secondary time series from 1978-1993. The main method of analysis employed is multiple regression and the data used was analysed using the DATA Efl PROGRAM.
Foreign direct investment is one of the central factors in* international business. However, no single theoretical structure can deal with all important aspects of FDI. Nonetheless, some powerful explanatory tools/ theories such as the international product cycle, firm specific advantage theory, the eclectic approach have shed substantial light on foreign direct investment activities and have been considered in this thesis.
From the analysis of results, it was found out that around 78% of the variation in the dependent variable (FDI) is explained by the independent variables of the rate of inflation, rate of growth of value added in manufacturing, the ratio between libor and the domestic rate, government budget deficit, real GDP per capita and the dummy variable (political stability).The relationship between the dependent (FDI) and the independent variables was as follows: real GDP per capita (positive), the ratio between libor and the domestic rate (negative), rate of inflation (positive) rate of growth of value added in manufacturing (negative), government budget deficit (positive) and political stability (negative). Statistically, all variables were significant at the level of 1%, 5% and 10%.
As regards the economic interpretation or implication, the variable of the rate of inflation had a positive sign which is not in line as stipulated in the hypothesis implying that the rate of inflation has no significant impact on the inflow of FDI. Therefore, the explanation as regards such a relationship was that, most of the FDI in Uganda relies on concessions for instance tax holidays of between 3-6 years from payment of corporation tax, dividend tax and withholding tax at an agreed percentage. There are also exemptions from import duty and sales tax on capital goods for investment. The results of the other variables besides the rate of inflation came out as stipulated in the hypotheses. This indicated that they do significantly influence the flow of FDI to Uganda. The conclusion made was that, Uganda is less attractive to foreign investor's and this could be explained by both economic and political factors. Besides that, the landlocked nature of the country makes transportation of capital goods from the coast of East Africa to Uganda very difficult and so she has to rely on the mercy of her neighbours, Tanzania and Kenya for an outlet to the
sea.
Kata Kunci : Modal asing, Uganda, PMA, Pajak Impor
