Peramalan Pencapaian target MDGs dalam Mengentaskan Kemiskinan Metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smooting: Studi Kasus Indonesia 1990-2008
FALASIFA, FEBRY (Adv.: Wihana Kirana Jaya, Prof., M.Soc.Sc., Ph.D.), Wihana Kirana Jaya, Prof., M.Soc.Sc., Ph.D.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan tingkat pencapaian salah satu target MDGs dalam pengentasan kemiskinan ekstrem di Indonesia. Salah satu indikator tersebut adalah proporsi penduduk berpendapatan di bawah US$1 per hari (PPP). Proses peramalannya dengan menggunakan lima metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing. Metode tersebut antara lain Exponential Smoothing Single, Exponential Smoothing Double, Exponential Smoothing No Seasonal, Exponential Smoothing Additive, dan Exponential Smoothing Multiplicative. Hasilnya, metode terbaik dalam meramal tingkat kemiskinan ekstrem di Indonesia adalah Exponential Smoothing Multiplicative. Dan pada tahun 2015 tingkat kemiskinan ekstrem di Indonesia diperkirakan sebesar 1,657 %. Besaran tersebut sudah mencapai targetnya yaitu sebesar 10%.
The goal of this study is to forecast the achievement one of the MDGs targets which is the alleviation of extreme poverty in Indonesia. One of those indicators are the proportion of people whose income are under US$ 1 per day (PPP). The forecasting was carried out by employing five method of Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing. Those methods are Exponential Smoothing Single, Exponential Smoothing Double, Exponential Smoothing No Seasonal, Exponential Smoothing Additive, dan Exponential Smoothing Multiplicative. The result shows that the best method in forecasting the level of extreme poverty in Indonesia is the Exponential Smoothing Multiplicative. Furthermore, it shows that in 2015, the level of poverty in Indonesia is estimated to be 1.657%. The forecasted level shows that the target of 10% was met.
Kata Kunci : Poverty forecasting, MDGs, Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing, Exponential Smoothing Single, Exponential Smoothing Double, Exponential Smoothing No Seasonal, Exponential Smoothing Additive, Exponential Smoothing Multiplicative, Peramalan, Kemiskinan
