The effect of Tax Revenue Components to Income, Savings, and Investment: Evidence from Indonesian Economy, 1969-2011
EDRIANI, DEBBIE NAOMI (Adv.: Artidiatun Adji, M.Ec., M.A., Ph.D.), Artidiatun Adji, M.Ec., M.A., Ph.D.
Abstraksi
Penelitian ini memeriksa pengaruh komponen penerimaan pajak terhadap pendapatan, tabungan pemerintah, dan investasi di Indonesia pada jangka panjang dan jangka pendek periode 1969-2011 menggunakan metode autoregressive distributed lag. Estimasi mengindikasikan bahwa pada jangka pendek, peningkatan 1 persen pajak perdagangan international akan menurunkan pendapatan sebesar 0.14 persen, tetapi peningkatan 1 persen pajak ekspor akan meningkatkan pendapatan sebesar 0.04 persen. Peningkatan pajak langsung, pajak ekspor, pajak perdagangan internasional, dan pajak pertambahan nilai sebesar 1 persen, akan menurunkan tabungan pemerintah masing-masing sebesar 0.89 persen, 0.05 persen, 0.34 persen, dan 1.14 persen. Sementara itu, komponen penerimaan pajak yang menurunkan investasi adalah pajak langsung dengan kontribusi penurunan tingkat investasi sebesar 1.54 persen untuk setiap kenaikan 1 persen. Akan tetapi, peningkatan 1 persen pajak ekspor akan meningkatkan 0.003 persen investasi. Dalam jangka panjang, penurunan cukai sebesar 1 persen akan meningkatkan pendapatan sebesar 0.64 persen. Peningkatan pajak ekspor akan menurunkan investasi sebesar 0.004 persen. Penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa penurunan pajak langsung dan pajak ekspor akan meningkatkan tabungan pemerintah masing-masing sebesar 0.78 persen dan 0.06 persen. Dalam situasi krisis, peningkatan 1 persen pajak langsung akan menurunkan pendapatan sebesar 4.84%, tabungan pemerintah sebesar 2 persen, dan investasi sebesar 0.53 persen. Namun demikian, dalam jangka panjang, peningkatan 1 persen pajak pertambahan nilai akan meningkatkan tabungan pemerintah sebesar 0.30 persen.
This paper investigates the effect of tax revenue components to income, savings, and investment both in the short and long run using Indonesian annual data over the period 1969-2011 in an autoregressive distributed lag framework. The resulting estimates indicate that in the short run, increasing international trade tax by 1 percent will decrease income by 0.14 percent, but increasing export tax by 1 percent will enhance income by 0.04 percent. On the other hand, an increase in direct tax by 1 percent will reduce savings by 0.89 percent, and increase in export tax by 1 percent will decrease savings by 0.05 percent, an increase in international trade tax and value added tax by 1 percent will reduce savings by 0.34 percent and 1.14 percent. The components that reduce investment—case of increasing 1 percent is direct tax by 1.54 percent, but an increase of 1 percent export tax will generate investment by 0.003 percent. In the long run, an increase in 1 percent excise will reduce 0.64 percent income. An increase in export tax by 1 percent will decrease investment by 0.004 percent. An increase in 1 percent direct tax and 1 percent export tax will reduce saving by 0.78 percent and 0.06 percent. In the crisis situation, direct tax will reduce income by 4.84 percent, savings by 2 percent and investment by 0.53 percent. However, value added tax in the long run generates savings by 0.30 percent.
Kata Kunci : income, savings, investment, tax revenue, Penerimaan Pajak, Pendapatan, Tabungan, Investasi, pajak pertambahan nilai, value added tax, international trade tax, Peningkatan pajak langsung, pajak ekspor, pajak perdagangan internasional, pajak pertambahan ni
