Pengaruh Perubahan Nilai Tukar Valuta Asing Terhadap Upah Dan Harga Di Indonesia
DJAMARIS, ROMI (Adv.: Endah Sih Prapti, Dra., M.A.), Endah Sih Prapti, Dra., M.A.
This thesis provides an empirical analysis of the probable effect of exchange rate changes on wage and price in Indonesia. The Objectives of this thesis are to know the effect of exchange rate changes on domestic retail price, nominal wage, real wage, and the initial price advantage achieved by exchange rate changes. This thesis uses two steps analysis, estimation and calculation step. In the estimation step, we estimate four equations (Price-Wage model with recursive system, Demand for Import, and Supply for Import). From these equations, we have
five coefficients of elasticity (the own-price elasticity of supply for import, the own-price elasticity of demand for import, the price elasticity of wage, the wage elasticity of price, and the import price elasticity of domestic retail price). The next step is calculation. In the calculation step, we use the five coefficients of elasticity into the formulas differentiated from the structural wage-price model. As Conclusion, 10 percent depreciation of rupiahs to US $ is going to lead approximately 0.53 percent (short run), 0.45 percent (long run) increase of Indonesian retail price. The initial competitive price advantage is approximately 0.94 percent (short run), 0.93 percent (long run). Moreover, real wage is going to decrease approximately 0.44 percent (short run), 0.37 percent (long run). Finally, nominal wage is going to increase approximately 0.0913 percent (short run), 0.078 percent (long run).
Kata Kunci : Exchange rate, wage, price, domestic retail price, initial price advantage.
