Pengaruh Defisit Anggaran Pemerintah Terhadap Tingkat Suku Bunga: Studi Komparatif Indonesia - Filipina

Denni Puspa Purbasari (Adv: Dr. Insukindro, M.A.), Dr. Insukindro, M.A.

1997 | Skripsi | S1 Economics

This study assesses the impact of budget deficit on interest rate. The conventional paradigm i.e. neoclassic and Keynesian have emphasized the negative impact of budget deficit on economic performance. In standard neoclassical macroeconomics model, the starting point is the assumption that the substitution of budget deficit for current taxation leads to an expansion of aggregate consumer demand. In other words, desired private saving rises by less than the tax cut, so that desired national saving declines. It follows for a closed economy, that the expected real interest rate would have to rise to restore equality between desired national saving and investment demand. Public debt competed with private debt for available funds then, the higher real interest rate would crowd out the private investment with deleterious effect to long term growth.

Over the last fifteen years this standard theory has been cast into doubt through revival of a theory, first explored by Ricardo. Ricardian Equivalence, as the revived theory has come to be called, attributes no effect at all. The reason is debt implies future taxes with a present value equal to the value of debt; rational agents recognizing this equivalence will proceed as if the debt did not exits, resulting the debt having no effect on economic activity (neutral).

Both models seem to be applicable for developed economy; so this leads to numerous research of budget deficit in developed economy. What about the developing economy? This study compare the effect of budget deficit and domestic financing to interest rate between Indonesia and Phillipines. The estimation using error correction model find that both prove the existence of Ricardian equivalence, that is deficit did not affect interest rate significantly, although both have different financing instrument. Phillipines finance their deficit from domestic source dominantly, with large share of bonds and bills. In the other hand, Indonesia finance their deficit from foreign financing especially in loan. This result leads to the existence of mix financing policy in Indonesia in order to back up foreign loan which tend to be uncontrollable, uncertain and riskier.

Kata Kunci : defisif anggaran, suku bunga