t dan FPlTt) and the volatility of the real exchange rates (VIPt and Vrn) did not give any significant effects, although they both had negative signs in agreement 'with what some empirical findings had mentioned before. On the other hand, they were only the fluctuation of the fob export values (FPlMt) and the real exchange rates volatility (VIMt) which gave negative influences to the trade (export) of the manufactured commodities between Indonesia and Malaysia, while the trade (export) of manufactured commodities between Indonesia and Singapore was influenced only by the presence of the unstability of the real exchange values (Vrsr). As a long term estimation, with one exception that is the PDBTt which. j nfl uenees the trade between Indonesia and Thailand, it can be said that for all the equations, all the independent variables do not give any significant effects, but they have the signs (possitive or negative) in agreement with some empirical findings before. Then it can be concluded that generally the real exchange rates volatility do not give any significant effects on the Indonesian trade of manufactured commodities in ASEAN countries bilaterally "> t dan FPlTt) and the volatility of the real exchange rates (VIPt and Vrn) did not give any significant effects, although they both had negative signs in agreement 'with what some empirical findings had mentioned before. On the other hand, they were only the fluctuation of the fob export values (FPlMt) and the real exchange rates volatility (VIMt) which gave negative influences to the trade (export) of the manufactured commodities between Indonesia and Malaysia, while the trade (export) of manufactured commodities between Indonesia and Singapore was influenced only by the presence of the unstability of the real exchange values (Vrsr). As a long term estimation, with one exception that is the PDBTt which. j nfl uenees the trade between Indonesia and Thailand, it can be said that for all the equations, all the independent variables do not give any significant effects, but they have the signs (possitive or negative) in agreement with some empirical findings before. Then it can be concluded that generally the real exchange rates volatility do not give any significant effects on the Indonesian trade of manufactured commodities in ASEAN countries bilaterally ">
Laporkan Masalah

Pengaruh Volatilitas Nilai tukar Riil Terhadap Perdagangan Komoditas Manufaktur Indonesia di Kawasan ASEAN 1986.4-1997.2

BASUKI, MARUTO UMAR, Ahmad Jamli, Drs., M.A.

2012 | Tesis | S2 Economics

Fokus studi nu adalah menguji beberapa faktor yang dapat mcmpcngaruhi perdagangan kornoditas manufaktur Indonesia di kawasaan! SCAN secara bilateral. Periode data yang digunakan adalah antara 1986.4- 1097.2.

Pengujian dengan menggunakan model koreksi kesalahan (error corrections model, ECM) menghasilkan kesimpulan bahwa, dalam jangka pcndek, perdagangan (ekspor) komoditi manufaktur Indonesia-Philipina dan Indonesia-Thailand dipengaruhi oleh produk domestik bruto negara tuj uan ekspor (PDBPt dan PDBTt) secara positif, tetapi baik fluktuasi harga ekspor fob (FP1!" dan FPITt) maupun volatilitas nilai tukar riil (VWt dan Vrn) tidaklah berpengaruh, walaupun bertanda negatif sesuai dengan beberapa hasil temuan cmpiris sebelumnya. Sebaliknya, hanya fluktuasi harga ekspor fob (FP1Mt) dan vulatilitas nilai tukar riil (VIMt) yang memberi pengaruh negatif terhadap perdagangan (ekspor) komoditi manufaktur Indonesia-Malaysia, sedangkan pcrdagangan (ekspor) komoditi manufaktur Indonesia-Singapura hanya d i pengaruhi oleh adanya ketidakstabilan nilai tukar riil (VISt).

Hasil estimasi jangka panjang menghasilkan bahwa kecuali variabel PI) I ~II yang berpengaruh terhadap perdagangan I ndonesia- Thailand, untuk scmua persamaan, semua variabel independen tidaklah berpengaruh, tetapi memiliki tanda yang sesuai dengan beberapa temuan empiris sebelumnya (pengecualiannya pada variabel VIpt) . Dengan demikian secara umum dapat disi rnpulkan bahwa ketidakstabilan nilai tukar riil tidak berpengaruh terhadap pcrdagangan komoditas manufaktur Indonesia di kawasan ASEAN secara bilateral.

The focus of this study was to examine several factors which might be able to affect the Indonesian trade of manufactured commodities in ASEAN countries bilaterally. The period of the data used here was 1986.4•1997.2.

The test using the error corrections model (ECM) resulted in 'conclusion that in short term, the trade (export) of manufacture commodities between Indonesia and the Philippines as well as between Indonesia and Thailand was influenced possitively by the gross national product of the both countries (PDBPt and PDBTt), while the fluctuation of the fob export values (FPn>t dan FPlTt) and the volatility of the real exchange rates (VIPt and Vrn) did not give any significant effects, although they both had negative signs in agreement 'with what some empirical findings had mentioned before. On the other hand, they were only the fluctuation of the fob export values (FPlMt) and the real exchange rates volatility (VIMt) which gave negative influences to the trade (export) of the manufactured commodities between Indonesia and Malaysia, while the trade (export) of manufactured commodities between Indonesia and Singapore was influenced only by the presence of the unstability of the real exchange values (Vrsr).

As a long term estimation, with one exception that is the PDBTt which. j nfl uenees the trade between Indonesia and Thailand, it can be said that for all the equations, all the independent variables do not give any significant effects, but they have the signs (possitive or negative) in agreement with some empirical findings before. Then it can be concluded that generally the real exchange rates volatility do not give any significant effects on the Indonesian trade of manufactured commodities in ASEAN countries bilaterally

Kata Kunci : Volatilitas, fluktuasi, bilateral, dan error correction model, volatility, fluctuation, bilateral, and error correction model


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