Dampak Depresiasi China/Jepang Terhadap Ekspor Indonesia Ke Jepang (2001-2010)
BASCORO, ANGKY (Adv.: Muhammad Edhie Purnawan, M.A., Ph.D.), Muhammad Edhie Purnawan, M.A., Ph.D.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh nilai tukar Yuan China terhadap volume ekspor Indonesia ke Jepang. Dalam penelitian ini, data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan, dari tahun 2001 sampai tahun 2010. Uji kointegrasi dilakukan untuk mengetahui hubungan jangka panjang antara volume ekspor Indonesia ke Jepang dan faktor ekonomi lainnya termasuk nilai tukar riil Yuan China. Untuk menjelaskan hubungan jangka pendek antara nilai tukar Yuan China terhadap volume ekspor Indonesia ke Jepang, penelitian ini menggunakan model koreksi kesalahan Angle-Granger. Selain nilai tukar riil Yuan China, penelitian ini juga menggunakan variabel ekonomi lain sebagai variabel penjelas, seperti, industrial production index Jepang, nilai tukar riil Rupiah, volume ekspor China ke Jepang. Hasil tes menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang nilai tukar riil Yuan China terhadap Yen Jepang berpengaruh negatif terhadap volume ekspor Indonesia ke Jepang. Dalam jangka pendek, estimasi model koreksi kesalahan menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada hubungan antara variabel tersebut.
This research aims to determine the effect of the value of the Chinese Yuan on the export volume from Indonesia to Japan. For this purpose, the monthly data from 2001 to 2010 are examined. Specifically, this study examines the long-run relationship between the Indonesian exports to Japan and other economic factors including the real exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan by performing cointegration test. In addition, the short run impacts of the real exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan on the Indonesian exports to Japan are examined by estimating Angle-Granger error-correction models. Along with the real exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan, other economic variables such as the Japanese industrial production index, the real exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah, and the export volume from China to Japan are also employed as explanatory variables. The test result indicate a negative long-run relationship between the Indonesian exports to Japan and the real exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan against the Japanese Yen. However, the estimation of the error correction models reveals that short-run impacts of the variables are not clearly detected from the data examined.
Kata Kunci : depreciation, cointegration test, error correction model, uji kointegrasi, model koreksi kesalahan
