ANALISIS PERTUMBUHAN DAN PERUBAHAN STRUKTUR PAJAK DI INDONESIA : 1968 - 1993
ARMAN DELIS (Adv : Dr. Budiono Sri Handoko, MA), Dr. Budiono Sri Handoko, MA.
Studi ini bertujuan untuk (1) mengukur sumber-sumber pertumbuhan pajak; (2) mengukur besaran koefisien "tax bouyancy" dan elastisitas pajak melekat dan (3) menganalisis pengaruh beberapa variabel makroekonomi dan kebijaksanaan reformasi pajak terhadap rasio total pajak, rasio pajak langsung dan rasio pajak penghasilan.
Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder runtun waktu periode 1968-1993. Analisis data menggunakan pendekatan Indeks Divisia (DIA) dan model regresi. Model regresi terdiri dart model regresi liner, Model Penyesuaian Parsial (PAM) dan Model Koreksi Kesalahan (ECM).
Ada beberapa temuan empiris yang terungkap dari hasil penelitian ini. Pertama, sebagian besar pertumbuhan total penerimaan pajak disumbangkan oleh pertumbuhan basis atau pertumbuhan otomatis, sementara-pangsa pertumbuhan diskresioner relativ kecil. Pertumbuhan total pajak sebesar 13,64 persen berasal dari pertumbuhan basis pajak tidak langsung domestik 5,61 persen, pajak langsung 5,52 persen, pajak impor 1,30 persen dan pajak ekspor 0,77 persen. Faktor residual sebesar 0,44 persen merupakan pangsa pertumbuhan pajak diskresioner. Berdasarkan pendekatan indeks divisia agregat ditemukan pangsa pertumbuhan diskresioner sebesar 1,07 persen. Kedua, respon total penerimaan pajak terhadap perubahan PDB non migas bersifat relatif elastis. Besaran koefisien tax bouyancy adalah 1,5558, sementara besaran koefisien elastisitas 1,4968 dan 1,4144 masing-masing menggunakan indeks divisia disagregat dan agregat. Ketiga, alam jangka pendek pendapatan nasional berpengaruh negatif, tetapi positif untuk variabel-variabel rasio output sektor industri, rasio sektor luar negeri dan rasio uang beredar terhadap rasio total penerimaan pajak. Terhadap rasio pajak langsung dan pajak penghasilan hanya variable pendapatan nasional yang berpengaruh signifikan dan positif. Koefisien regresi jangka panjang menunjukan hanya variabel rasio output sektor industri yang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap rasio total penerimaan pajak. Keempat, pengenalan sistim pajak pertambahan nilai (PPN) berpengaruh positif, .akan tetapi pengenalan pajak bumi dan bangunan (PBB) berpengaruh negatif terhadap rasio total pajak .pada model penyesuaian parsial. Kebijaksanaan reformasi pajak penghasilan PPH) ternyata berpengaruh negatif terhadap rasio pajak langsung dan pajak penghasilan.
This study has three purposes. They are : (1) measuring the sources of tax growth; (2) measuring the tax bouyancy and built-in tax elasticity coefficient and (3) calculating the effect of macroeconomics variables and tax reform policy on the total tax ratio, direct tax ratio and income tax ratio.
The data used in this research is secondary time series data for periode 1968-1993. The data were analyzed with Divisia Index Approach (DIA) and regression model.
The regression models consist of the liner regression model, Partial Adjustment Model (PAM) and Error Correction Model (ECM). Some empirical findings from this research are the following. First, a large'of part of the growth of total tax revenue was contributed by the growth of tax bases.
The growth of total tax revenue as big as 13.64 percent come from growth of domestic inderect tax base 5.62 percent, direct tax base 5.52 percent, import tax base 1.30 percent and export tax base 0.77 percent. The residual factor 0.44 percent is the share of discretionary tax growth. The result from aggregate divisia index approach show that share of discretionary growth is 1.07 percent. Second, the responses of total tax revenue to change in non oil and gas GDP is relatively elastic. The tax bouyancy coefficient is 1.5558, while the built-in tax elasticity is 1.4968 and 1.4144 respectively as evidenced from the disaggregate and aggregate divisia index method.
Third, in the short term, national income has negative effect, but positive for the variables of industrial output ratio, foreign sector ratio and money supply ratio on total tax ratio. To. direct tax and income tax ratio only the national income variable has positive effect and highly significant. The regression coefficient in the long term show that only the industrial output ratio has positive and significant on total tax ratio. Fourth, the introduction of the value added tax (VAT) system has positive effect and highly significant on total tax ratio, but its effect is negative for the introduction of poverty tax on Partial Adjustments Model. The income tax reform policy has negative effect on the share of direct tax and income tax on total tax revenue.
Kata Kunci : Pertumbuhan Pajak, Rasio Pajak, Pendekatan Indeks Divisia, Model Regresi, Tax Growth, Tax Ratio, Divisia Index Approach, Regression Model.
