Penerapan Discounted Cash Flow Model dalam rangka penentuan nilai pasar tanah komersial di Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta :: STudi kasus tanah untuk perkantoran dan hunian berlantai tinggi pada 10 kecamatan di jakarta Pusat dan Jakarta selatan

SINGGIH, Purnomo, Prof.Dr. Nopirin, MA

2001 | Tesis | Magister Ekonomika Pembangunan

To prevent loosing the potential source of local government revenue (PAD) from property tax (PBB) for local government, it is need to reconsider the method of assessing commercial land value currently implemented. In assessing commercial land value, the value should be reflecting the highest and best use (HBU) principle. One of the best appraisal techniques to estimate land value in a market where finding market comparables is difficult, is using DCF model. DCF model composed by several variables that need to be tested regarding to their validity before those model be implemented. The research are designated to examined : 1) from the five major variables composing DCF model, whether variables have the great effect to the model, 2) how far the model is still valid in accordance with changes of those major variables, 3) whether values are correlated better to the land value in line with highest and best use (HBU) principle, 4) do the floor area (LL), number of stories (JL) and building coverage ratio (KDB) as a reflection of the HBU principle have influences to the land value. Using the purposive sampling method, 104 commercial lands (office and high residential building) from 10 districts in Central Jakarta and South Jakarta has been taken. Then, reappraisal has been conducted to those samples based on the hypothetical method with residual technique using the OCF model. From the sensitivity analysis shows that three components in the DCF appraisal i.e. construction cost, property price and developer profit are the factors that have the great impact to the land value. Using multiple regressions as a tool of the validity test, indicate that the model in normal economic conditions is generally valid to be implemented. In the normal condition, input variables being used reflecting the real market condition, therefore, indication of land value generated by the model have also reflecting their potential value. In the abnormal conditions, input variables being used would not reflecting the real market conditions, therefore, indication of land value generated by the model also would have not reflecting their potential value. From the correlation test show that land value generated by the model have better values as a proxy of the highest and best use principle than NJOP that has been assesed using comparation method, since the DCF model that has been implemented based on the hypothetical method generated land value closer to their potential values. Based on the result of the influences test of the variables LL, JL and KDB as a reflections of the HBU principles, found that those variables both partial and simultant having positive impact and statistically significant to the variable land value generated by the model (NTDCF) with R2=78,35% at a =0.05. Therefore, to prevent loosing the potential source of local government revenue (PAD) from property tax (PBB), in normal economic conditions, assessing commercial land value for setting up the NJOP, it will better being estimated using DCF model. The DCF model generated land value closer to their potential value, then NJOP as a basis in imposition of property tax (PBB) will be close to their potential values, therefore, revenues that can be obtained from property tax (PBB) will also be closer to their potential’s.

Kata Kunci : Nilai Tanah Komersial, DKI Jakarta