Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (1) menganalisa tingkat daya saing ekspor karet alam Indonesia terutama dari segi keunggulan komparatif dan kompetitif dibandingkan dengan karet alam Thailand dan Malaysia dan (2) mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaaan ekspor karet alam dipasar Internasional ,antara lain di negara tujuan ekspor utama yaitu Amerika Serikat, Cina dan Jepang. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data time series berupa data tahunan dari tahun 1979 sampai dengan 2008. Analisis Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) dan Acceleration Ratio (AR) digunakan untuk mengetahui keunggulan komparatif karet alam Indonesia, Thailand dan Malysia serta analisis Indeks Spesialisasi Perdagangan (ISP) untuk mengetahui posisi komoditas karet alam Indonesia, Thailand dan Malaysia di pasar Internasional. Untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan ekspor karet alam Indonesia di negara tujuan ekspor utama karet alam Indonesia, disusun model ekonometrika menggunakan metode “Seemingly Unrelated Regression” (SUR). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa karet alam Indonesia dan Thailand memiliki keunggulan kompartif dan memiliki daya saing yang tinggi di pasar internasional, daya saing karet alam Malaysia lebih rendah dibanding Indonesia dan Thailand, serta tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif (2) Daya saing karet alam Indoneisia cenderungan meningkat dan pangsa ekspor karet alam Indonesia unggul di pasar Amerika Serikat (3) Berdasarkan Indeks ISP, posisi Indonesia dan Thailand kuat dalam merebut pangsa pasar ekspor karet alam, negara Indonesia dan Thailand merupakan net export karet alam (trade oriented), serta komoditas karet alam Indonesia dan Thailand berada pada tahap kemandirian (4) Posisi Malaysia lemah dalam merebut pangsa ekspor karet alam (non-trade oriented) atau sebagai importir karet alam, serta komoditi karet alam Malaysia berada pada tahap subtitusi impor. Hasil dari analisis regresi Seemingly Unrelated Regression menunjukan bahwa (1) secara signifikan variable harga karet di pasar NewYork, harga minyak mentah dunia dan nilai tukar US$-Rupiah mempengaruhi permintaan permintaan ekspor karet alam Indonesia di negara Amerika,Serikat, (2) GDP negara Cina, harga karet alam Indonesia dan harga Internasional karet sintetik secara signifikan mempengaruhi permintaan ekapor karet alam Indonesia di negara Cina, (3) GDP negara Jepang, harga karet alam di pasar New York,harga karet alam di pasar bursa komoditi SICOM, Harga karet alam Thailand dan harga Internasional keret sintetik secara signifikan mempengaruhi permintaan ekspor karet alam di negara Jepang.

The objectives of this research are to (1) know the exports competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber especially from its comparative and competitive advantage and comparison with Thailand and Malaysia (as the competitor country) and to (2) analyze the determinant of Indonesian natural rubber export demand to main country destination : USA, China and Japan. Data used in this research was time series in the form of annual data of 1979- 2008. Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Acceleration Ratio (AR) analysis have applied to find out the comparative advantage of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia while Trade Index Specialization (ISP) analysis was used to discover the position of Indonesian, Thai and Malaysia natural rubber in the global market. An econometric model was constructed with “Seemingly Unrelated Regression method” to estimate the determinant of Indonesian natural rubber export demand. The results shows that (1) Indonesian and Thailand faced a high export competitiveness of natural rubber and show a comparative advantage in the global market, however, Malaysia is less competitive than Indonesia and Thailand and show comparative disadvantage (2) Indonesia was delighted in growth of high export competitiveness market of natural rubber in the US market (3) The ISP index shows that Indonesia and Thailand are still held as the exporter country (trade-oriented) of natural rubber and the natural rubber commodity has reached the maturing stage of product life cycle. (4) Malaysia is an importer country (non trade-oriented) of natural rubber and the natural rubber commodity in the substitute import stage of product life cycle. The Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) analysis on the variables used in determining the export demand of Indonesian natural rubber to the country destination obtained that: (1) natural rubber prices in New York, crude oil prices in global market and the exchange rate US$-Rupiah having significantly affects the export demand of Indonesian natural rubber to USA (2) GDP of China, Indonesian natural rubber prices and synthetic rubber prices in global market having an significantly affects on the export demand of Indonesian natural rubber to China, and (3) GDP of Japan, natural rubber prices in New York, natural rubber prices in futures market (SICOM), Thai natural rubber prices and synthetic rubber prices in global market having an significantly affects on the export demand of Indonesian natural rubber to Japan.

Kata Kunci : Tingkay daya saing,Karet alam,Keunggulan kompetitif dan komparatif, the competitiveness, natural rubber, comparative and competitive advantage