PENENTUAN NILAI INTRINSIK SAHAM ATAS PERUSAHAAN YANG MEMILIKI LABA NEGATIF (Studi kasus pada PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk. )

Nurhidayah, Dr. Mamduh M. Hanafi, M.B.A.,

2012 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

Salah satu motif uang adalah untuk investasi yang ditujukan guna memperoleh dividen dan atau capital gain. Namun kondisi PT. Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) selama beberapa tahun tidak memiliki laba positif sehingga tidak mampu membayar dividen, dan dalam kenyataan harga saham BNBR pun berfluktuatif sehingga diperlukan analisis mengenai nilai wajar saham BNBR. Nilai pasar wajar saham BNBR diperoleh dengan menggunakan metode discounted cash flow-cash flow to firm model dan nilai wajar saham ini dapat digunakan investor dalam menentukan keputusan investasi, yaitu membeli, menjual, atau menahan saham BNBR. Data yang diteliti dalam penelitian ini adalah lima laporan keuangan dan informasi lain yang terkandung pada laporan tahunan BNBR tahun 2006-2010, laporan keuangan semester satu tahun 2011, harga saham BNBR, tingkat inflasi, tingkat suku bunga dan data industri terkait. Hasil penelitian nilai pasar wajar saham BNBR per tanggal 31 Desember 2011 dengan menggunakan metode discounted cash flow-cash flow to firm model berkisar antara Rp55,5 sampai dengan Rp64,5 per lembar saham.

One of the motive of money is investing that is for receiving dividend and or capital gain. The condition of PT. Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) had been loss for three years so that it couldnot pay dividend to stockholders. In the other hand, the price of its stock at market is so fluctuative. That is the reason to analyze the fair value of the BNBR’s stock. The fair market value in this research is obtained by using discounted cash flow-cash flow to firm model The fair market value of BNBR can be used by investor in evaluating the investment decision, whether sell, buy, or hold the stock. For this study, the data observed using discounted cash flow-cash flow to firm model is five financial statements and other information contained in the annual report of BNBR for period 2006 to 2010, financial statement in 2011 (quarter II) of BNBR, BNBR’s stock price, beta of BNBR, the macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, broad money, inflation rate, interest rate, nominal exchange rate, and related industry data. As a result, this research shows that the fair market value of BNBR shares as of Desember 31th, 2011 by using discounted cash flow method is at Rp55,5 until Rp64,5 per share.

Kata Kunci : investasi, nilai pasar wajar saham, discounted cash flow-cash flow to firm model.