NILAI PASAR WAJAR SAHAM PT BAKRIE & BROTHERS TBK DAN LONG HAUL HOLDINGS LTD (BERSAMA-SAMA DISEBUT SEBAGAI “GRUP BAKRIE”) PADA PT. BUMI RESOURCES TBK DALAM RANGKA SHARESWAP DENGAN SAHAM VALLAR PLC

Prasetyo Djoko Sasongko, S.E., Dr. Muhammad Edhie Purnawan, MA.

2011 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis nilai pasar wajar saham PT. Bumi Resources Tbk selanjutnya disebut perseroan sebanyak 25 persen yang dimiliki oleh PT. Bakrie Brother Tbk (BNBR) dan Long Haul Holdings Ltd dalam rangka shareswap dengan Vallar PLC. Alat analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Pendekatan Pendapatan (Income Approach) metode Diskonto Pendapatan Ekonomi Mendatang (DCF) dengan mengaplikasikan model DCFKonvensional, DCF-Simulasi Monte Carlo dan DCF-Call Options Black-Sholes- Merton. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah laporan tahunan (annual report) dan laporan keuangan perseroan yang telah di audit oleh Kantor Akuntan Publik periode 2005 – 2009 serta laporan akhir Juni 2010 dan akhir September 2010 yang dipublikasikan oleh perseroan. Data juga diperoleh dari Reuters Thomson serta Direktorat Investor Relationship PT. Bakrie Brothers Tbk. Dengan mengaplikasikan ketiga model DCF maka dalam mengestimasi nilai dipilih model DCF-Call Options Black-Sholes-Merton yang menghasilkan kesimpulan nilai berupa nilai pasar wajar untuk 25 persen saham PT. Bumi Resources Tbk milik PT. Bakrie Brothers Tbk dan Long Haul Holdings Ltd per 30 September 2010 sebesar US$0.36 (tiga puluh enam sen dollar amerika) per lembar saham setara dengan Rp3.249,- (tiga ribu dua ratus empat puluh sembilan rupiah) per lembar saham setara dengan GBP 0.23 (dua puluh tiga sen mata uang Inggris Great British Pounds Sterling) atau £23.02. – (dua puluh tiga dua sen mata uang Inggris penny) per lembar saham. Hasil ini telah mengaplikasikan premi kendali sebesar 25 persen. Sementara itu harga eksekusi Vallar PLC kepada Bakrie adalah £10.00. – (sepuluh mata uang Inggris penny) per 16 November 2010.

The objective of this research is to analyze the share in terms of the fair market value for PT. Bumi Resources Tbk, henceforth to be called the company, as an amount shares of 25 percent owned by PT. Bakrie Brothers Tbk (BNBR) and Long Haul Holdings Ltd in connection with shareswap between Vallar PLC and Bakrie Group. The analytical tools used in this study is the Income Approach, by applying a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Furthermore, the DCF model will be supported by Monte Carlo Simulation and Financial Options Valuation Black-Sholes-Merton Model. Data used in these particular research are the company annual report for the year 2005 to 2009, Financal Report Audited for the year 2005 to 2009, Interim report of the Company for the end period of Juni 2010 and the end period of September 2010. Data is also to be downloaded from the company website as well as was obtained from Reuters Thomson and the Directorate of Investor Relationship of PT. Bakrie Brothers Tbk. By applying the three DCF models in estimating Value, hence the process valuation come up to the conslusion that the fair market value of 25 percent share in PT. Bumi Resources Tbk owned by PT. Bakrie Brothers Tbk and Long Haul Holdings Ltd has as a result that is U.S. $ 0.36 (thirty-six U.S. cents) per share, equivalent to Rp3.249, - (three thousand two hundred and forty-nine rupiah) per share, equivalent to GBP0.23 (twenty-three cents currency British Pounds Sterling) or £23.02. - (twenty-three point two-cent British currency penny) per share. These results have been applied control premium of 25 percent. Meanwhile, the exercise price from Vallar PLC is £10.00. - (ten British currency penny) on 16 November 2010.

Kata Kunci : Pendekatan Pendapatan, DCF-Konvensional, DCF-Simulasi Monte Carlo, DCF-Call Options Black-Sholes-Merton, DCF-Binomial Lattice, Penilaian Bisnis Pertambangan.