ANALISIS NILAI PASAR WAJAR SAHAM PT BUMI RESOURCES TBK TERKAIT TRANSAKSI BACKDOOR LISTING

Doni Prabudi, Ertambang Nahartyo, Ak., M.Sc., Ph.D.

2011 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

Aksi korporasi backdoor listing yang dilakukan PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk pada pertengahan November 2010 berakibat kenaikan harga saham-saham perusahaan grup Bakrie dengan kenaikan tertinggi pada PT Bumi Resources Tbk. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan nilai intrinsik saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk dengan menggunakan pendekatan pendapatan (metode Discounted Cash Flow /DCF) dan pendekatan pasar (Relative Valuation) metode pembanding perusahaan tercatat di Bursa Efek (Guideline Publicly Traded Company Method) yang digunakan sebagai dasar menganalisis harga saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk setelah transaksi backdoor listing yang dilakukan PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk apakah telah wajar atau over valued/undervalued. Analisis menggunakan metode discounted cash flow dengan model Free Cash Flow To The Firm (FCFF) dilakukan dengan tahapan-tahapan : analisis proyeksi penjualan atau pendapatan usaha, proyeksi laporan keuangan, proyeksi arus kas bebas (free cash flow), penentuan tingkat diskonto (WACC), penentuan nilai akhir (terminal value), dan estimasi nilai. Analisis dengan menggunakan metode relative valuation dimulai dengan menentukan perusahaan-perusahaan pembanding dalam bidang usaha yang sama yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia selanjutnya memilih dan menetapkan angka pengali (multiples) PER (Price Earning Ratio) dan PBV (Price to Book Value) yang akan digunakan untuk menentukan nilai saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk. Indikasi nilai intrinsik saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk berdasarkan perhitungan metode DCF adalah Rp2.960,- per lembar saham. Sedangkan berdasarkan pendekatan pasar (Relative Valuation) mendapatkan nilai saham Rp3.500,- per lembar saham. Untuk mendapatkan nilai yang mewakili kedua indikasi nilai tersebut dilakukan rekonsiliasi nilai menghasilkan nilai intrinsik sebesar Rp3.176,- per lembar saham. Mengacu ketentuan Bapepam-LK berdasarkan perhitungan nilai intrinsik, kisaran nilai wajar saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk antara Rp2938,- sd. Rp 3.414,- . Harga saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk per lembar tanggal 31 Desember 2010 adalah Rp3.025,-. Selisih yang ada tidak material atau tidak significant karena masih dalam kisaran nilai wajar, sehingga hasil perhitungan berupa nilai intrinsik relatif sama dengan harga pasar saham. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa kenaikan harga pasar saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk per tanggal 31 Desember 2010 terkait transaksi backdoor listing PT Bakrie &Brothers Tbk adalah masih dalam kisaran nilai pasar wajar.

Backdoor listing of corporate actions held by PT Bakrie & Brothers in mid November 2010 resulted in price increases the company’s share Bakrie Group with the highest in PT Bumi Resources Tbk. This study aims to determine the intrinsic value of shares of PT Bumi Resources Tbk using the income approach (Discounted Cash Flow model/DCF) and the market approach (Relative valuation) method of comparison companies listed on Stock Exchange (Guideline Publicly Trade Company) is used as a basis for analyzing stock price of PT Bumi Resources Tbk after backdoor listing transactions conducted by PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk has been fair or over/under valued. The Analysis uses discounted cash flow method with the model of free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is done by stages: an analysis of sales or revenue projections, financial statements projections, projected free cash flow, determining discount rate (WACC), determining terminal value, and estimated operational value of the firm. Analysis of relative valutation begins by determining the comparison companies in the same line of business listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and set the multiples PER (Price Earning Ratio) and PBV (Price to Book Value) that will be used to determine the value of the shares of PT Bumi Resources Tbk. Indication of the intrinsic value of shares of PT Bumi Resources Tbk on calculation of DCF method is Rp2.960,- per share. Meanwhile, based on market approach (relative valuation) get the value of shares Rp3.500,- per share. To get the value represents both an indication of the value, reconciliation is done to produce the intrinsic value is Rp3.176,- per share. Reffering to the provisions of Bapepam-LK as capital market regulator, on the basis of intrinsic value calculation, the range of fair value of shares of PT Bumi Resources Tbk between Rp2938 – Rp 3.414. The price of a share of PT Bumi Resources Tbk as of December, 31 2010 is Rp3.025,- The difference is not material or significant because it still within the range of fair value, so that the calculation of intrinsic value relatively equal to the price of the stock market. It can be concluded that the increase in stock market prices of PT Bumi Resources Tbk as of December 31,2010 related to transactions backdoor listing of PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk is still within the range fair market value

Kata Kunci : nilai intrinsik, nilai pasar wajar, backdoorlisting, harga saham, metode DCF, metode Relative Valuation, FCFF, PER, PBV