Analisa permintaan ekspor Indonesia

DARMASETIAWAN, Edwin, Nopirin, Prof., Dr., MA

2010 | Tesis | S2 Magsiter Manajemen

Thesis ini menganalisa hubungan dan elastisitas permintaan ekspor Indonesia sebagai dependent variable, dengan 4 independent variables yaitu : (1) pembiayaan Perbankan di Indonesia kepada ekspor Indonesia, (2) GDP per kapita negara-negara tujuan utama ekspor Indonesia, (3) nilai tukar USD/IDR, dan (4) dummy krisis ekonomi, yang mencerminkan efektivitas kebijakan ekspor setelah krisis. Model analisa yang digunakan dalam thesis ini adalah model Owen J.R (2005) dalam penelitiannya terhadap ”Export and Currency Change in Malaysia” dan ”Export and Currency Instability in South Korea” dengan kondisi : 1. Owen J.R (2005) menganalisa hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekspor di Malaysia dan Korea Selatan sebagai dependent variable, dengan 4 independent variables yaitu (1) real exchange rate, (2) devaluation dummy variable, (3) persentase perubahan GDP dunia, dan (4) persentase perubahan ekspor dunia. Terdapat 12 komoditi yang diteliti di Malaysia dan 13 komoditi di Korea Selatan dan dihasilkan 25 multiple regression untuk setiap komoditi dengan analisa yang fokus terhadap pengaruh devaluasi Ringget dan Won terhadap ekspor di masing-masing negara tersebut. 2. Thesis ini menganalisa hubungan dan elastisitas permintaan ekspor Indonesia sebagai dependent variable dengan 4 independent variables sebagaimana tersebut diatas dengan menggunakan data periode tahun 1990 s/d 2008 untuk nilai ekspor Indonesia, pembiayaan Perbankan di Indonesia kepada ekspor Indonesia, GDP per kapita Amerika Serikat, Jepang, Singapura, Cina, dan nilai tukar USD/IDR. Hubungan dan elastisitas antara dependent variable dengan masing-masing independent variables yang diteliti selanjutnya dianalisa berdasarkan satu multiple regression yang dihasilkan Hasil analisa membuktikan bahwa terdapat hubungan yang positif antara permintaan ekspor Indonesia sebagai dependent variable dengan 4 independent variables yang diteliti, namun dengan elastisitas yang berbeda-beda, sebagai berikut : 1. Pembiayaan Perbankan di Indonesia berpengaruh positif terhadap permintaan ekspor Indonesia namun tidak elastis karena share pembiayaan Bank di Indonesia terhadap ekspor Indonesia sangat kecil. 2. GDP per kapita di Jepang, Amerika Serikat, Singapura dan Cina berpengaruh positif terhadap permintaan ekspor Indonesia dan sangat elastis karena kenaikan GDP akan meningkatkan produktivitas industri negara-negara tersebut sehingga membutuhkan lebih banyak impor bahan baku dan sumber daya alam dari negara-negara pengekspor termasuk Indonesia. 3. Nilai tukar USD/IDR berpengaruh positif terhadap permintaan ekspor Indonesia namun tidak elastis karena tidak memberikan manfaat yang langsung dan signifikan kepada buyer diluar negeri, tetapi hanya memberikan dampak kepada Indonesia. 4. Dummy krisis ekonomi tidak berpengaruh terhadap permintaan ekspor Indonesia, namun karena bilangan koefisien regresi adalah positif maka permintaan ekspor Indonesia setelah krisis tetap lebih baik dibanding sebelum krisis. Berdasarkan analisa dalam thesis ini diketahui bahwa independent variable yang paling elastis terhadap permintaan ekspor Indonesia adalah GDP per kapita negara-negara tujuan utama ekspor Indonesia.

The research in this thesis analyzed the relationships and elasticity of the Indonesia export demands as a dependent variable, with 4 independent variables those were (1) Indonesia Bank’s financings to the Indonesia exports, (2) GDP per capita of Japan, United States, Singapore, China, (3) exchange rate of USD/IDR, and (4) dummy economic crisis, which is reflect the effectiveness of Indonesia’s export policy after the crisis. The research in this thesis was involved the use of research model of Owen J.R. (2005) in the “Export and Currency Change in Malaysia” and the “Export and Currency Instability in South Korea”, with the condition of 1. Owen J.R. (2005) analyzed the relationship among the export growth as a dependent variable with the 4 independent variables, those were (1) real exchange rate, (2) devaluation dummy variable, (3) change in world GDP, and (4) change in world export. Afterwards, the research generated 25 multiple regressions for 12 commodities been researched in Malaysia and 13 commodities in South Korea, with the analysis been focused to the impact of devaluation in Ringget and Won to the export growth in the each country. 2. The research in this thesis was conducted to analyze the relationship and elasticity of the Indonesia export demand as a dependent variable, with the 4 independent variables as already mention above. The relationship and elasticity between the dependent variable with the 4 independent variables researched, been analyzed based on the one multiple regression resulted. The research recognized that the relationship among the Indonesia export demand with all of independent variables been analyzed were positives with different elasticity, as following explanations 1. The relationship between Indonesia export demands with the Indonesia Bank’s financings to the Indonesia exports was statistically significant and positive, but not elastic because of the insignificant share of Indonesia’s Bank financings to the Indonesia’s export. 2. The relationship between Indonesia export demands with the GDP per capita of the major Indonesia’s export destination countries was statistically significant and positive, and the elasticity is also high. These because of the increasing GDP will also increases the industries productivity in those countries, and will increases the import demand of raw material and natural resources from the export countries including Indonesia. 3. The relationship between Indonesia export demands with the exchange rate of USD/IDR was statistically significant and positive, but not elastic because of the USD/IDR exchange rate volatility did not gives direct and significant advantages to the overseas buyers, but only influenced the Indonesia economy. 4. The dummy economic crisis did not influenced the Indonesia export demand, but since the coefficient of regression was positive, it considered that the Indonesia export demand even better after the crisis. The research also identified that the most influenced independent variable to the Indonesia export demand was the GDP per capita of the major export destination countries, which is reflects the buyer’s purchasing power.

Kata Kunci : Permintaan ekspor Indonesia,Pembiayaan ekspor Indonesia,GDP per kapita,Ekspor Indonesia,Nilai tukar USD per IDR