Integrasi Pasar Beras di Indonesia

MUH AMAT NASIR, Dr. Jamhari, SP., MP.; Dr. Jangkung Handoyo Mulyo, M.Ec.

2021 | Tesis | MAGISTER EKONOMI PERTANIAN

Penelitian ini mengaplikasikan pengujian kointegrasi terhadap harga harian komoditas beras selama periode 18 Juli 2016 hingga 10 November 2020 (1,071 data), untuk mengetahui dan menjelaskan (i) kondisi ekuilibrium jangka panjang harga beras antarpulau, (ii) dinamika jangka pendek harga beras antarpulau, dan (iii) tingkat penyesuaian terhadap penyimpangan kondisi ekuilibrium. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat digunakan sebagai bahan pertimbangan untuk mengevaluasi dan mereformasikan kebijakan di masa depan untuk (i) menjaga keseimbangan antarwilayah surplus dan defisit, (ii) memperkecil kesenjangan harga antarpulau, (iii) menyediakan sarana dan prasarana perdagangan antarpulau, dan (iv) mendukung perekonomian domestik. Data penelitian merupakan harga rata-rata beras medium I dan II di tingkat pasar tradisional di enam pulau. Penelitian ini menjelaskan pengaruh penetapan kebijakan Harga Eceran Tertinggi melalui Permendag No. 57/M-DAG/PER/8/2017 dan pandemi COVID-19 terhadap transmisi harga beras di Indonesia. Hasil estimasi error correction model (ECM) menunjukan bahwa pada jangka panjang Pulau Jawa terkointegrasi dengan Pulau Sumatera, Sulawesi, dan Maluku & Papua. Pada jangka pendek perubahan harga di setiap kelompok pulau tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh perilaku harga dari pulau lain, namun juga dipengaruhi oleh perilaku harga di pasar domestik. Kebijakan Permendag No. 57/M-DAG/PER/8/2017 hanya berpengaruh parsial yakni mempercepat proses transmisi harga beras di Pulau Jawa dan Sulawesi, namun sebaliknya terhadap Pulau Jawa dan Sumatera. Sementara itu, diketahui bahwa selama masa pandemi proses transmisi harga beras antarpulau di Indonesia tidak mengalami perubahan arah dan kecepatan. Tingkat penyesuaian terhadap harga ekuilibrium diketahui bersifat lamban, yakni sekitar 0.53% per hari, sehingga total waktu penyesuaian mencapai sekitar 188 hari atau 6.25 bulan.

This study applies cointegration testing to the daily price of rice commodities during the period 18 July 2016 to 10 November 2020 (1,071 data) to determine and explain (i) long-term equilibrium conditions for inter-island rice prices, (ii) short-term dynamics of inter-island rice prices, and (iii) the degree of adjustment to deviations from equilibrium conditions. This research is expected to be used as material for consideration in evaluating and reforming future policies to (i) maintain a balance between areas of surplus and deficit, (ii) reduce the price gap between islands, (iii) provide facilities and infrastructure for inter-island trade, and (iv) support the domestic economy. The research data is the average price of a medium I and II rice at the six islands' traditional market level. This study explains the effect of the highest retail price policy stipulated by the Minister of Trade Regulation No. 57/M-DAG/PER/8/2017 and the COVID-19 pandemic on the transmission of rice prices in Indonesia. The estimation result of the error correction model (ECM) shows that in the long term Java Island is co-integrated with Sumatera, Sulawesi, and Maluku & Papua Islands. In the short term, price changes in each island group are influenced by price behavior from other islands and price behavior in the domestic market. Minister of Trade Policy No. 57/M-DAG/PER/8/2017 only has a partial effect, namely accelerating the process of transmitting the price of rice in Java and Sulawesi, but in contrast to Java and Sumatera. Meanwhile, it is known that during the pandemic period, the inter-island rice price transmission process in Indonesia did not change in direction and speed. The level of adjustment to the equilibrium price is known to be slow, at around 0.53% per day, so that the total adjustment time reaches about 188 days or 6.25 months.

Kata Kunci : beras, integrasi, ECM, HET, COVID-19