MODEL MULTI STATUS UNTUK MENENTUKAN PREMI ASURANSI CRITICAL ILLNESS; ( MULTI STATE MODEL FOR PRICING CRITICAL ILLNESS INSURANCE )

Sasmita, Wahyuni Eka, Gunardi

2015 | Disertasi | FMIPA

The probability of the individual suffering from disease or illness is important assumption in pricing critical illness insurance. Multi state model is used to determine the probabilities. Transition probabilities from a state to another formed from the transition intensities. The transition intensities is not known their exact value, so that it needs to be estimated. Transition intensities used to calculate the transition probabilities associated by differential equations Kolmogorov Backward and Forward. If only prevalence rates of sickness are available, mortality rate intensity is modelled by Gompertz-Makeham model. Transition probabilities that used as one of assumptions to determine a pure premium of critical illness insurance.

Kata Kunci : multi state model; transition intensities; tansition probabilities ; Kolmogorov Backward and Forward; Gompertz-Makeham; critical illness.