ANALISIS PENGEMBANGAN SAPI POTONG DALAM UPAYA PEMENUHAN DAGING SAPI DI JAWA TENGAH

Wiludjeng Roessali, Ir.,M.Si., Prof. Dr. Ir. Masyhuri

2011 | Disertasi | S3 Ekonomi Pertanian

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (1) Mengkaji faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi respon peternak terhadap program pengembangan ternak sapi potong di Jawa Tengah., (2) Menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku peternak terhadap risiko beternak sapi potong di Jawa Tengah, (3) Mengkaji faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produktivitas sapi potong di Jawa Tengah (4), Menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produksi daging sapi di Jawa Tengah; (5) Menganalisis dampak perubahan berbagai faktor kebijakan dan non kebijakan terhadap penawaran dan permintaan daging sapi di Jawa Tengah, dan (6) Melakukan peramalan penawaran dan permintaan daging sapi di Jawa Tengah. Penelitian dilaksanakan di Jawa Tengah dengan sampel Kabupaten Wonogiri, Kabupaten Grobogan, Kabupaten Blora, Kabupaten Semarang, Kabupaten Kendal. Responden penelitian ini adalah 196 orang yang terdiri dari peternak sapi potong pola pembesaran induk-anak dan pola penggemukan. Analisis data menggunakan Model Ordinary Least Square (OLS) dan Model Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) . Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: (1) Sebagian besar peternak (63,78) mempunyai respon rendah terhadap pengembangan sapi potong. (2) Sebesar 86,2% peternak berperilaku netral terhadap risiko beternak sapi. (3) Faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap produktivitas ternak dalam jangka panjang adalah rasio induk dalam populasi, pelayanan kawin per induk, produktivitas tahun sebelumnya, kebijakan hijauan dan kebijakan perbibitan sementara teknologi produksi semen berpengaruh negatif. (4) Jumlah pemotongan sapi, permintaan daging sapi dan kebijakan hijauan berpengaruh positif terhadap produksi daging (LR); sedangkan dalam jangka pendek (SR) tingkat suku bunga berpengaruh negatif. (5) Penawaran daging sapi Jawa Tengah hanya responsif terhadap perubahan produktivitas sapi dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Kebijakan penurunan impor daging sapi 25- 40% memberi dampak negatif pada produktivitas, populasi dan penawaran daging. Peningkatan pendapatan masyarakat sebesar 15% berpengaruh negatif terhadap produksi daging, peningkatan populasi penduduk sebesar 1% mengakibatkan peningkatan permintaan dan penawaran daging sapi masing-masing sebesar 53,1% dan 30,38%, sedangkan penurunan tingkat suku bunga dan depresiasi nilai tukar 40% berpengaruh positif terhadap penawaran daging sapi tetapi berpengaruh negatif terhadap permintaan daging sapi. (6) Prediksi tahun 2014 produksi daging Jawa Tengah baru memenuhi 85,25% permintaan daging sapi atau terdapat senjang sebesar 14,75% dan pada tahun 2019 senjang antara produksi dan permintaan mencapai 26,52% sehingga dalam jangka panjang kebutuhan daging yang harus diimpor akan makin besar jika program pengembangan tidak direspon dengan baik.

This research has the objectives of (1) finding out the factors influencing on the responses of breeders to the program of beef cattle in Central Java; (2) analyzing the factors influencing on breeders’ behavior towards the risks of having beef cattle in Central Java; (3) studying the factors influencing on the productivity of beef productivity in Central Java; (4) analyzing the factors influencing on the production of beef in Central Java; (5) analyzing the impact of various policy and non-policy factors changes on the supply and demand of beef in Central Java; and (6) conducting estimation of supply and demand of beef in Central Java. The research was conducted in Central Java with the samples of Wonogiri County, Grobogan County, Blora County, Semarang County, and Kendal County. The respondents of this research were 196 people comprising of beef breeders of cow-calf raising pattern and fattening pattern. Data analysis used the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Model and Two-Stage Least Square (TSLS) Model. The research results show that: (1) Many of the breeders (63.78%) have low responses towards the development of beef. (2) As much as 86.2% of breeders have neutral behaviors towards the risks of having cattle. (3) The factors having the significant-positive influences on cattle productivity in the long-term is the ratio of mother in population, conception service per mother, productivity of the previous year, greenery policy and seeding policy; meanwhile, the semen production technology has a negative influence. (4) The number of cattle slaughtered, beef demands, and greenery policy influence positively on the beef production (LR); meanwhile, in short-term (SR), the interest rate influences negatively. (5) Beef supply of Central Java is only responsive to the changes of cattle productivity in short-term and long-term. The policy of beef import decrease as much as 25 – 40% gives negative impacts on productivity, population, and beef supply. The increase of people’s income as much as 15% influences negatively on beef production; the increase of inhabitant population as much as 1% causes increases of demand and supply of beef as much as 53.1% and 30.38% respectively, meanwhile, the decrease of interest rate and exchange rate depreciation as much as 40% influence positively on beef supply; however, they influence negatively on beef demand. (6) The prediction of the year 2014, the beef production in Central Java will fulfill 85.25% of beef demand or there will be a gap of 14.75%, and in 2019 the gap between production and demand will be 26.52%, thus, in long-term, the need of beef that should be imported will be greater if the program of development is not wellresponded.

Kata Kunci : respon, prilaku, produksi, penawaran, sapi potong