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EVALUASI NILAI KEWAJARAN HARGA SAHAM: STUDI KOMPARASI PADA BANK MANDIRI, BRI, DAN BCA

MOHAMAD JACOBIE HENRYWIDOJONO, Drs. Agus Setiawan, M.Soc.Sc., Ph.D

2014 | Tesis | S2 Manajemen

Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk menganalisis dan memperbandingkan kekuatan/kelemahan keuangan Bank Mandiri, BRI dan BCA termasuk nilai kewajaran harga saham ketiga bank tersebut serta memberikan gambaran saham yang terbaik untuk dipilih sebagai pilihan investasi. Penelitian dilakukan melalui pengujian secondary data untuk menganalisis nilai kewajaran harga saham Bank Mandiri, BRI dan BCA dengan menggunakan analisis fundamental (top-down approach) yang mencakup analisis kondisi ekonomi makro, analisis sektor/industri dan kinerja perusahaan termasuk nilai intrinsik sahamnya. Untuk analisis kinerja bank menggunakan indicators: traditional measures of performance (ROA, ROE, Cost to Income Ratio, NIM), economic measures of performance (EVA) dan market-based measures of performance (EPS, DPS, P/E, P/B) serta nilai intrinsik saham (Corporate Value Model - Discounted Dividend & Free Cash Flow Perusahaan, P/E, P/B, EVA). Kondisi ekonomi makro global & domestic tahun 2014 diperkirakan akan lebih baik dibandingkan tahun 2013. Dalam kurun waktu 2010 – 2012, ketiga bank tersebut di atas memiliki kinerja cukup baik dalam industri perbakan Indonesia. Berdasarkan analisis traditional measurement of performance diketahui bahwa secara rata-rata dalam periode 2010 – 2012, BRI paling unggul di ROA, ROE dan NIM, disusul oleh BCA dan selanjutnya Bank Mandiri. Berdasarkan analisis market based measure diketahui bahwa dalam kurun waktu 2010 - 2012, rata-rata EPS BRI lebih tinggi disusul Bank Mandiri dan BCA. Bank Mandiri lebih tinggi pada rata-rata DPS dan Book Value per Share disusul BRI dan BCA. Sedangkan BCA lebih tinggi pada rata-rata P/E, P/B dan Dividend Payout. Rata-rata EVA BRI selama periode 2010-2012 menunjukkan yang tertinggi, sedangkan Bank Mandiri dan BCA relatif sebanding. Bila dibandingkan harga pasar per tanggal 1 April 2014, maka nilai intrinsik berdasarkan Discounted dividend BRI dan Mandiri undervalue (pasar BRI Rp10.000 vs intrinsik BRI Rp17.257 & pasar Mandiri Rp9.950 vs intrinsik Mandiri Rp10.333), BCA overvalue (pasar BCA Rp10.950 vs intrinsik BCA Rp7.727). Bila dibandingkan harga pasar per tanggal 1 April 2014, maka nilai intrinsik berdasarkan FCF Perusahaan BRI dan Mandiri undervalue (pasar BRI Rp10.000 vs intrinsik BRI Rp24.657 dan pasar Mandiri Rp9.950 vs intrinsik Mandiri Rp18.880), sedangkan BCA overvalue (pasar BCA Rp10.950 vs intrinsik BCA Rp7.866). Hasil analisis scoring kinerja berdasarkan ukuran market & intrinsic value & tradisional, BRI mempunyai kinerja yang paling baik (score 81,16%) , disusul Mandiri (score 62,50%) dan selanjutnya BCA (score 56,34%). Range harga saham : Mandiri: Rp7.341-Rp18.880, BRI: Rp6.972- Rp24.657, BCA: Rp7.680 - Rp7.866.

The purpose of research is analyzing and comparing finance’s strongs/weaknesses of Bank Mandiri, BRI and BCA including the fairness of their stock price and giving pictures of the best bank for investment. The research use secondary data for analizing the fairness of banks’stock price by fundamental analysis (top-down approach). Performance bank analyzing use indicators: traditional measures of performance (ROA, ROE, Cost to Income Ratio, NIM), economic measures of performance (EVA) dan market-based measures of performance (EPS, DPS, P/E, P/B) and intrinsic value of stock (Corporate Value Model – Discounted Dividend & Firm Free Cash Flow, P/E, P/B, EVA). The prediction of macroeconomic condition (global & domestic) 2014 is better than 2013. In 2010-2012 the banks had good performance in banking sector in Indonesia. Based on traditional measurement of performance analysis is known that in period 2010-2012, BRI was the best in ROA, ROE and NIM (for average), the second was BCA and further Bank Mandiri. Based on market based measure analysis is known that in periode 2010-2012, BRI was the best in EPS (for average), the second was Bank Mandiri and further BCA. Bank Mandiri was the best in DPS & Book Value per Share (for average), the second was BRI and further BCA. BCA was the best in P/E, P/B dan Dividend Payout (for average). In period 2010-2012, BRI’EVA was the best, BRI and BCA were similar. Comparing with stock price in 1 April 2014, stock intrinsic value of BRI & Bank Mandiri (based on Discounted dividend) is undervalue (market: BRI Rp10.000 vs intrinsic: BRI Rp17.257 & market: Mandiri Rp9.950 vs intrinsic: Mandiri Rp10.333), BCA is overvalue (market: BCA Rp10.950 vs intrinsic: BCA Rp7.727). Based on FCF Firm, stock intrinsic value of BRI & Mandiri is undervalue (market: BRI Rp10.000 vs intrinsic: BRI Rp24.657 and market: Mandiri Rp9.950 vs intrinsic: Mandiri Rp18.880), BCA is overvalue (market: BCA Rp10.950 vs intrinsic: BCA Rp7.866). The result of performance scoring analysis, based on market & intrinsic value & traditional measurement, BRI is the best ((score 81,16%) , Mandiri (score 62,50%) and BCA (score 56,34%). Stock price range : Mandiri: Rp7.341-Rp18.880, BRI: Rp6.972- Rp24.657, BCA: Rp7.680 - Rp7.866.

Kata Kunci : analisis fundamental, traditional measures of performance, economic measures of performance, market-based measures of performance, nilai intrinsik saham


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