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Analisis Valuasi Nilai Intrinsik Saham PT. Astra International Tbk. dengan metode discounted cash flow

ILYAS SUANDI, Zaki Baridwan, Prof. Dr., M.Sc.

2017 | Tesis | S2 Manajemen

Penelitian ini mengulas penerapan model discounted cash flow untuk menentukan nilai intrinsik saham PT. Astra International Tbk. (IDX: ASII). Langkah-langkah yang dilakukan penulis adalah dengan top-down approach dimulai dengan analisis kondisi lingkungan makro ekonomi serta analisis industri dimana perusahaan beroperasi, kemudian dilanjutkan dengan penilaian perusahaan berdasarkan proyeksi keuangan untuk beberapa tahun mendatang hingga didapatkan nilai intrinsik perusahaan. Proyeksi laporan keuangan dibuat free cash flow to equity, lalu didiskontokan untuk mendapatkan value of the firm, kemudian dihitung nilai intrinsiknya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan harga saham ASII di pasar yaitu Rp. 8.275 dinilai masih wajar atau fairvalued jika dibandingkan dengan hasil perhitungan nilai intrinsiknya yaitu Rp. 8.346 dengan rentang harga saham wajar Rp. 7.929 - Rp. 8.763. Tetapi jika nilai ß menggunakan hasil perhitungan regresi saham ASII dengan IHSG selama tahun 2007 - 2016, maka nilai intrinsiknya menjadi Rp. 9.746 dengan rentang harga saham wajar Rp. 9.259 - Rp. 10.233 sehingga dinilai dalam kondisi undervalued.

This research discusses the application of discounted cash flow models to determine the intrinsic value of PT International Tbk. (IDX: ASII). A top-down approach was taken, starting with an analysis of macroeconomic environment and analysis of the industry in which the company operates. This was followed by an assessment of the company for the financial projections for the several next years to determine the company's intrinsic value. Projected financial statements were analysed using the Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, and were discounted to obtain the value of the firm, after calculated the intrinsic value of the firm. the result of this research show that the price of ASII stock at market Rp. 8.275 was fair valued if compare with it's intrinsic value Rp. 8.346 with the fair price range was Rp. 7.929 - Rp. 8.763. if ß value user regression from ASII and IHSG for 2007-2016, the intrinsic value become Rp. 9.746 with the fair price range was Rp. 9.259 - Rp.10.233, so it valued at undervalued condition. Keyword: Stock Valuation, Discounted Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow to Equity, Top Down Approach, Intrinsic Value

Kata Kunci : Valuasi Nilai Saham, Stock Valuation, Discounted Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow to Equity, Top Down Approach, Nilai Intrinsik, Intrinsic Value